실물옵션을 활용한 G7 한국형고속전철의 다이나믹 가치평가Dynamic Valuation of the G7-HSR350X Using Real Option Model
- Other Titles
- Dynamic Valuation of the G7-HSR350X Using Real Option Model
- Authors
- 김성민; 권용장
- Issue Date
- Mar-2007
- Publisher
- 한국철도학회
- Keywords
- 현금흐름할인모형; ROV; 실물옵션; 블랙-숄즈 옵션평가모델; 이항옵션모형; 몬테카를로 시뮬레이션; 가치평가; DCF Model; Real Option Valuation; Black-Scholes Option Pricing Model; Binomial Option Model; Monte-Carlo Simulation; Valuation
- Citation
- 한국철도학회논문집, v.10, no.2, pp.137 - 145
- Indexed
- KCI
- Journal Title
- 한국철도학회논문집
- Volume
- 10
- Number
- 2
- Start Page
- 137
- End Page
- 145
- URI
- https://scholarworks.bwise.kr/erica/handle/2021.sw.erica/110986
- ISSN
- 1738-6225
- Abstract
- In traditional financial theory, the discount cash flow model(DCF or NPV) operates as the basic framework for most analyses. In doing valuation analysis, the conventional view is that the net present value(NPV) of a project is the measure of the present value of expected net cash flows. Thus, investing in a positive(negative) NPV project will increase(decrease) firm value. Recently, this framework has come under some fire for failing to consider the options of the managerial flexibilities. Real option valuation(ROV) considers the managerial flexibility to make ongoing decisions regarding the implementation of investment projects and the deployment of real assets. The appeal of the framework is natural given the high degree of uncertainty that firms face in their technology investment decisions. This paper suggests an algorithm for estimating volatility of logarithmic cash flow returns of real assets based on the Black-Sholes option pricing model, the binomial option pricing model, and the Monte Carlo simulation. This paper uses those models to obtain point estimates of real option value with the G7- HSR350X(high-speed train).
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