시나리오 중립 접근법을 활용한 기후변화 시나리오에 따른 보령시 가뭄의 수문학적 위험도 평가Evaluation of hydrologic risk of drought in Boryeong according to climate change scenarios using scenario-neutral approach
- Other Titles
- Evaluation of hydrologic risk of drought in Boryeong according to climate change scenarios using scenario-neutral approach
- Authors
- Jiyoung, Kim; Man, Han Young; Beom, Seo Seung; Daeha, Kim; Tae-Woong, Kim
- Issue Date
- Mar-2024
- Publisher
- Korea Water Resources Association
- Keywords
- Bivariate drought frequency analysis; Climate change; Hydrologic risk; Scenario-neutral approach
- Citation
- Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, v.57, no.3, pp 225 - 236
- Pages
- 12
- Indexed
- SCOPUS
KCI
- Journal Title
- Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
- Volume
- 57
- Number
- 3
- Start Page
- 225
- End Page
- 236
- URI
- https://scholarworks.bwise.kr/erica/handle/2021.sw.erica/119055
- DOI
- 10.3741/JKWRA.2024.57.3.225
- ISSN
- 2799-8746
- Abstract
- To prepare for the impending climate crisis, it is necessary to establish policies and strategies based on scientific predictions and analyses of climate change impacts. For this, climate change should be considered, however, in conventional scenario-led approach, researchers select and utilize representative climate change scenarios. Using the representative climate change scenarios makes prediction results high uncertain and low reliable, which leads to have limitations in applying them to relevant policies and design standards. Therefore, it is necessary to utilize scenario-neutral approach considering possible change ranges due to climate change. In this study, hydrologic risk was estimated for Boryeong after generating 343 time series of climate stress and calculating drought return period from bivariate drought frequency analysis. Considering 18 scenarios of SSP1-2.6 and 18 scenarios of SSP5-8.5, the results indicated that the hydrologic risks of drought occurrence with maximum return period ranged 0.15±0.025 within 20 years and 0.3125±0.0625 within 50 years, respectively. Therefore, it is necessary to establish drought policies and countermeasures in consideration of the corresponding hydrologic risks in Boryeong. © 2024 Korea Water Resources Association. All rights reserved.
To prepare for the impending climate crisis, it is necessary to establish policies and strategies based on scientific predictions and analyses of climate change impacts. For this, climate change should be considered, however, in conventional scenario-led approach, researchers select and utilize representative climate change scenarios. Using the representative climate change scenarios makes prediction results high uncertain and low reliable, which leads to have limitations in applying them to relevant policies and design standards. Therefore, it is necessary to utilize scenario-neutral approach considering possible change ranges due to climate change. In this study, hydrologic risk was estimated for Boryeong after generating 343 time series of climate stress and calculating drought return period from bivariate drought frequency analysis. Considering 18 scenarios of SSP1-2.6 and 18 scenarios of SSP5-8.5, the results indicated that the hydrologic risks of drought occurrence with maximum return period ranged 0.15±0.025 within 20 years and 0.3125±0.0625 within 50 years, respectively. Therefore, it is necessary to establish drought policies and countermeasures in consideration of the corresponding hydrologic risks in Boryeong. © 2024 Korea Water Resources Association. All rights reserved.
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