Role of vegetation in modulating East Asian surface temperature changes in earth system models

Abstract

The mechanisms linking the carbon cycle to terrestrial vegetation activity and climate factors are complex and involve feedback loops. While previous studies have often reported an increase in vegetation activity along with rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations, less research has been conducted on the relationship between the vegetation activity and its impact on East Asian surface temperature in relation to the magnitude of CO2 concentrations in CMIP6 Earth System Models (ESMs). The analysis compared two groups of ESMs based on high and low CO2 concentrations during the historical period (1950–2014). Significant differences in vegetation indices were observed between the two groups of ESMs, which could be due to CO2 fertilization effects. However, no significant differences in surface temperature were observed between the two groups in East Asia during the vegetation growing season. Consequently, the study concluded that vegetation plays a significant role in modulating changes in East Asian surface temperature by altering the surface energy budget, rather than CO2 forcing in ESMs. This implies that accurately simulating vegetation activity is crucial for developing mitigation and adaptation strategies in East Asia. © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Austria, part of Springer Nature 2025.