Characteristics of internal variability on summer rainfall in Northeast Asia in a changing climate
- Authors
- Hyun, Seung-Hwon; Yeh, Sang-Wook
- Issue Date
- Jan-2020
- Publisher
- Springer Verlag
- Citation
- Climate Dynamics, v.54, no.1-2, pp.1179 - 1195
- Indexed
- SCIE
SCOPUS
- Journal Title
- Climate Dynamics
- Volume
- 54
- Number
- 1-2
- Start Page
- 1179
- End Page
- 1195
- URI
- https://scholarworks.bwise.kr/erica/handle/2021.sw.erica/1386
- DOI
- 10.1007/s00382-019-05051-1
- ISSN
- 0930-7575
- Abstract
- Using a 35-ensemble member simulated with the community earth system model-large ensemble (CESM-LE) experiment, we examined the characteristics of internal variability (IV) on the Northeast Asian summer rainfall anomaly (NASRA) in a changing climate. The NASRA, which is defined as the rainfall anomaly averaged across Northeast Asia (30 degrees-40 degrees N, 115 degrees-145 degrees E), consists of the tropics-related rainfall anomaly and the extratropics-related rainfall anomaly. In this study, the IV was estimated by the spread of rainfall simulated in each ensemble member from their ensemble mean. The IV associated with the tropics-related rainfall variability did not change significantly from the present climate to a future climate. In contrast, the IV associated with the NASRA gradually increased from the mid-twenty first century and this was mostly due to an increase of IV associated with the extratropics-related rainfall variability. This implies that the predictability of NASRA may decrease in a future changing climate because of the extratropics-related rainfall variability associated with zonal atmospheric wave train patterns including Eurasian-like pattern, Silk Road pattern or Circumglobal Teleconnection pattern. We also discussed the characteristic change of IV associated with the tropics-related and the extratropics-related rainfall variability in a future warmer climate.
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