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Spatial Change Assessment of the Observed and Projected Extreme Precipitation via Change Point Detection
- Authors
- Chen, Si; Kim, Seong Wook; Kim, Tae-Woong
- Issue Date
- Aug-2016
- Publisher
- Elsevier Ltd
- Keywords
- Bayesian analysis; change point detection; climate change; extreme precipitation; spatial analysis
- Citation
- Procedia Engineering, v.154, pp.1359 - 1367
- Indexed
- OTHER
- Journal Title
- Procedia Engineering
- Volume
- 154
- Start Page
- 1359
- End Page
- 1367
- ISSN
- 1877-7058
- Abstract
- This study investigated possible change points of extreme precipitation during the past 1973-2012 and the future 2020-2059 in South Korea. The Bayesian change point detection was performed based on a generalized Pareto distribution. Changes in the shape/tail index were detected to account for the changes in the extreme data. Results indicated 20 and 24 stations exhibited a change point for the observed and projected period, respectively. An abrupt increase in the 100-year design level appeared in the majority of northern part during the past period and the increase was likely to move to the southern area for the projected period. © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license.
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Related Researcher
- Kim, Tae Woong
- ERICA 공학대학 (DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL AND ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING)