Collar Option Model for Managing the Cost Overrun Caused by Change Orders

Abstract

Effective change order management is very important in maintaining the financial sustainability of various stakeholders related to construction projects by minimizing cost overruns. In this study, we propose a zero-cost risk management approach based on the collar option model in order to control for the loss caused by change orders, the main cause of cost overruns in construction projects. We apply this model to actual projects for empirical analysis. The analysis, based on 237 projects, indicates that insurance buyers benefit from the collar option model in 46% of the cases, while insurance sellers do so in 53% of the cases. In most cases, the insurance buyer is the owner. According to the model, the owner experiences a loss when the cost overrun caused by change orders is lower than what was expected. In such cases, it is appropriate to conclude that the loss is not caused by the collar option model, but by the absence of additional revenue. However, the insurance seller suffers a loss if the cost overrun is higher than the strike price of the call option. Thus, the insurance seller needs to have expertise in construction management.