Forecasting Net Induced Travel Demand for Optional Trip Purpose by Trip Production Model with Accessibility
- Authors
- Kim, Ik ki; HAN,Khun-Soo; KIM,Hyoung-Chul; JUNG,Byungho
- Issue Date
- Sep-2013
- Publisher
- Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies
- Keywords
- net induced demand; production mode; , accessibility; linear regression; optional trip purpose
- Citation
- Proceeding of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, v.9, pp 122 - 137
- Pages
- 16
- Indexed
- OTHER
- Journal Title
- Proceeding of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies
- Volume
- 9
- Start Page
- 122
- End Page
- 137
- URI
- https://scholarworks.bwise.kr/erica/handle/2021.sw.erica/27106
- Abstract
- Predicting net induced demand can be helpful for better feasibility study before
investigating transportation infrastructure. The net induced demand can be defined as newly
generated trips, but not shifted trips, by some improvements in transportation systems. This study
only focused on the net induced demand rather than any other concepts belong to the general
term “induced demand”. The net induced demand is quite related to the trip generation model
because it refers to purely increased trips in frequency due to transportation improvement that
would not be occurred without the improvement.
The study analyzed trip production models with accessibility measure for each traffic analysis
zone. Multiple linear regressions were adopted as the production models in the study. The study’s
basic hypothesis on trip generation was that number of generated trips per day will be statistically
different at different level of accessibility for each production zone. In the estimated regression
model, the study considered that the parameter for accessibility, as an independent variable, can
be interpreted as unit change of the net induced demand by changes of a unit of accessibility
measure. This study tried to show empirically that the number of production trips was varied
depending on level of accessibility for a specific traffic analysis zone with real data of household
survey. The study used the 2010 household travel survey data of Daegu Metropolitan Area in
South Korea with 68,398 traveler’s data. As the results, the regression analysis showed that
accessibility for a specific zone significantly affected net induced demand especially for optional
trip purpose. The study also showed the way how estimating quantitatively the increased net
induced demand with an example.
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