Probabilistic Maintenance Cost Analysis for Aged Multi-Family Housing

Abstract

To realize sustainable construction, planning for future maintenance costs is essential. In the case of multi-family housing, various maintenance issues can be expected to appear starting 10 years after completion. Therefore, preventive maintenance must be implemented in a systematic manner to cope with the problems caused by the natural aging of multi-family dwellings and to maintain a sustainable level of quality for the properties. In this study, maintenance costs were investigated for 224 multi-family housing units aged 20 years or older in Seoul, South Korea. Using Monte Carlo simulation in conjunction with expert interviews, a probabilistic maintenance cost analysis was conducted to analyze and estimate the variability in maintenance costs. The findings of the study propose that the use of probabilistic maintenance cost analysis can be developed into a useful planning tool for determining reasonable future maintenance costs in sustainable construction.