의사결정나무와 로지스틱 회귀분석을 이용한 태권도 수련생 이탈 예측을 위한 비교 연구

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to suggest the most appropriate prediction model for prediction of secession of trainees of Taekwondo gymnasium through decision-making tree technique among logistics regression analysis and data mining techniques. In order to accomplish the purpose of this study, I have distributed 1,500 questionnaires sheets to the trainees using by convenience sampling method among non probability sampling extraction methods by setting trainees of Taekwondo gymnasium located in Gyeonggi-Do and Incheon Results of this study derived from this procedure and method are as follows. 1. As the result of examining the difference of level of specialty between decision-making tree technique & logistics regression analysis, in the level of specialty predicting carry forward number of people with actual number of carry-over, logistics regression analysis was 92.9% and decision-making tree technique showed a little higher at 96.3%. 2. As the result of examining the difference of level of sensitivity between decision-making tree technique & logistics regression analysis, in the level of sensitivity predicting carry forward number of people with actual number of carry-over, logistics regression analysis was 64.0% and decision-making tree technique showed 44.5%. 3. As the result of examining the difference of level of accuracy between decision-making tree technique & logistics regression analysis, in the level of accuracy predicting carry forward number of people with actual number of carry-over, logistics regression analysis was 86.8% and logistics regression analysis showed 87.6%. 4. As the results of examining variables affecting secession of trainees of Taekwondo gymnasium between decision-making tree technique and logistics regression analysis, in case of decision-making tree technique, variables were training period, grade, satisfaction for instructor, recommendation will, and satisfaction of facility and in case of logistics regression analysis, variables were training period, grade, recommendation will, satisfaction for instructor, and per sex. Summarizing the above result, as the result of comparison analysis of secession prediction of trainees of Taekwondo gymnasium between decision-making tree technique and logistics regression analysis, the two models showed all high prediction rate in the level of accuracy and there was no difference of prediction rate between the two analysis models. This result is believed to be because the same variables affecting secession were used in the same.