Confidence, knowledge, and compliance with emergency evacuation

Abstract

Hurricane Katrina vividly showed that policy compliance can be a life-or-death matter in times of natural disasters. Although a substantial number of emergency management studies examined the determinants of evacuation compliance, they largely focused on demographic and socioeconomic characteristics. Research in policy implementation shows that public confidence in government institutions and knowledge about policies implemented are critical factors for securing compliance from target populations. Building upon this literature, we examine whether confidence and knowledge factors can predict compliance behaviors with policies of disaster response. Our analysis of a nationwide survey indicates that confidence in Federal Emergency Management Agency significantly increases the probability of compliance with evacuation orders. Individuals with better knowledge of local disaster response plans are also more likely to comply with evacuation orders than others. These findings suggest that enhancing the effectiveness of disaster management policy may require a fundamentally different approach with a new focus on institutional capacity and process.