이주지 선택모형에 기초한 실용적 주택사업지 흡수수요 산정방안

Abstract

본 논문은 논의범위를 지역 잠재수요(발생수요)에 기초하여 사업지 유효수요(흡수수요)를 산정하는 접근방법에 한정하여 논의하고자 한다. 또한 Mankiw-Weil 모형(Mankiw and Weil, 1989) 과 같은 지역 혹은 광역 단위의 잠재수요 추정방법론에 대한 논의(최성호·이창무, 2010; 이창무 외, 2017)는 필요한 경우 제한적으로 언급하고자 한다. 이어지는 절에서는 주택사업지 수요분석과관련된 몇 가지 쟁점들을 정리하면서 본 논문에서 제안되는 흡수수요추정방법론의 개념을 논의하고자 한다.

Conventional methodologies for estimating the effective demand attracted by a residential project have failed to incorporate the fact that the realization of someone’s residential demand requires their residential mobility. This movement on space has its origin and destination. In this sense, a demand analysis in the housing market needs to link properly demand generation and demand absorption in different locations. Therefore the housing demand absorbed in a project site should be able to reflect the destination selection mechanism of potential customers at the origin under the competition with other residential developments. This location choice process has been well analyzed with the MCI model (Multiplicative Competitive Interaction Model). However, the conventional MCI model needs to be modified to incorporate the fact that people choose a house exclusively in a location rather than the location itself. Also, MCI model is not easy to use in the practical field because it requires high level of expertise in estimation and operation. Therefore, this study develops a step-by-step procedure that can estimate the residential housing demand with embracing the revised version of MCI model for the housing market.