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주택경기 순환모형에 관한 연구A Study on the Housing Business Circulation Model

Other Titles
A Study on the Housing Business Circulation Model
Authors
조미정김광석이명훈
Issue Date
Nov-2013
Publisher
대한국토·도시계획학회
Keywords
Housing Business; Cycle Phases; Honeycomb Cycle Model; Price; Volume; Multinomial Logistic; 주택경기; 순환국면; 벌집순환모형; 가격; 거래량; 다항로짓
Citation
국토계획, v.48, no.6, pp.199 - 221
Indexed
KCI
Journal Title
국토계획
Volume
48
Number
6
Start Page
199
End Page
221
URI
https://scholarworks.bwise.kr/hanyang/handle/2021.sw.hanyang/161469
ISSN
1226-7147
Abstract
This study examined the applicability of new cycle phase model to explain the housing market in Korea by examining the feasibility of the housing related existing theories, and the factors having effects on decision of the cycle phases of the individual housing market was drawn. First, the regression propensity to the balanced phases(1,5,9 phases) by increase of the volume but balanced phases(1,5,9 phases) was examined. It is assumed that the information search effect is on the housing market in Korea. Second, the balance of the price and volume may be broken due to the conditions of individual markets or the economy condition, and it showed the flow of large oval appearing the cycle of the counterclockwise. Third, in the case of the fluctuation of volume faster than the price fluctuations in the housing market, the cycle phases showed the turning trajectory of the counterclockwise. Fourth, the hive circulation model did not show the feasibility on the domestic housing market. In other words, it is difficult to examine the purchase seed money effect on the housing market in Korea, but it is assumed that there are the loss aversion effects or information search effect on the contraction phase. Finally, the representative factors which have the effects on phase move of the expansion phase and the contraction phases are the unsold, the net population decrease, the migration in cities and provinces, rental price 6-month moving average, per capita wages and economic growth.
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서울 도시대학원 > 서울 도시·지역개발경영학과 > 1. Journal Articles

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LEE, Myeong Hun
GRADUATE SCHOOL OF URBAN STUDIES (DEPARTMENT OF URBAN AND REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT)
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