기후정보를 반영한 확률적 일정계획수립 모델 개발

Abstract

This study aims to overcome problems of scheduling established by planner’s institution and judgment. By introducing stochastic approach, this study proposes a method to predict work duration on the construction sites reflecting work information generated around unit work of previous cases and non-working day, and this model was verified by its application to a case study. As a result of analyses on previous researches in an attempt to develop work duration model, there were several studies on estimating work duration based on stochastic approach. However, previous researches could not predict work duration in different construction sites because unit work was not separated. Accordingly, this study attempts to suggest a practical method to predict work duration in advance in pre-construction phase where construction is not under way. After predicting construction time of a site where duration is supposed to be predicted based on the data of measuring case study, verification of this model was carried out in compared to real construction time. In consequence, work duration within twelve days was been estimated with a margin of error of 5%. In addition, the period for actual construction turned out ten days, which was analyzed within twelve day. Therefore, model of this study show the practical method estimating work duration in pre-construction phase.