조성법과 Markov Chain 모형을 결합한 지역 인구예측모형에 관한 연구Model Development for Forecasting Regional Population - Using Cohort-Component Method and Markov Chain Model -
- Other Titles
- Model Development for Forecasting Regional Population - Using Cohort-Component Method and Markov Chain Model -
- Authors
- 김홍배; 김재구; 임병철
- Issue Date
- Nov-2009
- Publisher
- 대한국토·도시계획학회
- Keywords
- 인구예측; 인구이동; 조성법; Markov Chain Model; Forecasting Population; Migration; Cohort Component Method; Markov Chain Model; Forecasting Population; Migration; Cohort Component Method; Markov Chain Model
- Citation
- 국토계획, v.44, no.6, pp.139 - 146
- Indexed
- KCI
- Journal Title
- 국토계획
- Volume
- 44
- Number
- 6
- Start Page
- 139
- End Page
- 146
- URI
- https://scholarworks.bwise.kr/hanyang/handle/2021.sw.hanyang/175823
- ISSN
- 1226-7147
- Abstract
- Population of a city is a leading indicator in urban planning. Because sizes of various infrastructure including housings, streets and facilities related to urban services are mostly determined according to the population of a target year. Hence, an inaccurate forecasting of population will result in inefficient resource allocation within a city. However, there is usually a considerable difference between a forecasted population and the actual population. The study attempts to develop a more accurate population forecasting model. specifically, In the model the cohort-component method is used for natural growth and the Markov chain model for migration. Also, To enhance the accuracy of the stationary Markov chain model, the study adopts the non-stationary model by adding migration factors including the housing developments and the distance between the move-in and the move-out city. The study specifically shows that the model developed reduces the difference between forecasting and actual population. Also, using the model the policy scenarios on balanced development are examined.
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