서울시 골목상권 유형화와 창·폐업 영향요인 분석 : 시계열 유동인구 빅데이터와 Dynamic Time Warping 시계열 군집분석을 활용하여

Abstract

본 연구는 서울시 골목상권을 대상지로 한다. 서울시 골목상권은 자영업자들과 소비자들에게 다양한 기회를 제공하는 장소이며, 골목상권의 위치와 배후지 특성에 따라 다른 유형을 가지고있다. 본 연구는 서울시 골목상권의 이질성에 기반하여 유동인구특성에 따른 골목상권 유형화를 수행하고 유형별 창·폐업 영향요인을 분석한다. 이를 통해 골목상권 유형에 맞춘 차별화된 상권전략을 제시하고자 한다. 따라서, 본 연구는 서울신용보증재단에서 제공하는 2019년 유동인구 데이터를 통해 골목상권의 유형을도출하고, 유형화에 영향을 주는 요인을 확인한다. 또한, 유형별영향요인과 창·폐업 간의 관계를 확인한다.

The cycle of growth, stagnation, and decline of commercial districts resembles that of a living, breathing organism. People are motivated to visit commercial districts due to the competitiveness of the entire commercial district, which affects the typology of weekday and weekend commercial districts. This study aims to analyze the influencing factors of alley commercial districts’ vitality through the typology of commercial districts and to provide policy implications for alley commercial district revitalization by verifying the relationship between business openings and closings. For the analysis, we utilized floating population big data and dynamic time warping time series cluster analysis. Additionally, we conducted logistic regression analysis to identify influencing factors affecting business openings and closings. The analysis results that the number of apartments, business type diversity index, density of businesses, and number of hinterland gathering facilities exhibit positive relationships for determining weekend commercial districts. By contrast, the number of franchises, number of office workers, individual land price, existence of subway station, and the location adjacent to major commercial district exhibit negative relationships. Furthermore, multiple linear regression analysis was performed to explore the relationship between business openings and closings and influencing factors. The significance of this study is that different types of alley commercial districts in Seoul are identified and that influencing factors affecting business openings and closings in each alley commercial district are indicated. This study suggests that different revitalization policies should be applied depending on the alley commercial districts.