A novel approach to commercial district life-cycle analysis using web crawling: An application of chasm theory

Abstract

Commercial districts exhibit a cyclical pattern of growth and decline, with key changes in commercial districts based on consumer attraction. The growth of a commercial district is achieved when consumers' and suppliers' mutual demand and supply align. However, previous studies had a limitation of incorporating the demand perspective. Therefore, this study focuses on the typology of the temporal curves of supply and demand and ‘Chasm’ between supply and demand, which can limit growth of a commercial district. This study aims to define the life-cycle of commercial districts in Seoul by adopting a novel data-driven quantitative framework. This study utilized business count data and major web services' search traffic data by web crawling techniques from 2006 to 2022. Our findings revealed a persistent mismatch between supply and demand across districts, underscoring the structural asymmetries between physical commercial infrastructure and transient consumer behavior. Also, we empirically identified four distinct clusters of commercial districts which captured the presence of Chasm. Notably, this study introduces a generalizable methodology using open-source tools and universally accessible data for diagnosing commercial district transformations. The results of this study indicate that both supply and demand must be considered for selecting commercial district locations and understanding their life-cycles. Furthermore, the study offers a structured approach to analyzing urban commercial change that is both quantitative and replicable.