Asymmetrically increasing likelihood judgments of success: Evidence from lottery sales data

Abstract

This research investigates the phenomenon of intertemporal purchase acceleration in the context of lottery purchases. Using actual sales data, we demonstrate that individuals’ willingness to purchase lottery tickets increases as the draw day approaches, despite the constant prize amount and near-zero winning odds. We explore the role of temporal proximity, visualization, and likelihood judgment in influencing purchase intent. The study replicates the “lucky store effect,” showing that stores with previous winning tickets experience a sharper acceleration in sales. In two follow-up experiments, we identify that visualization and perceived likelihood mediate the relationship between temporal proximity and purchase intent. Additionally, we find that habit moderates this effect, with habitual buyers being less influenced by temporal proximity. These insights into consumer behavior in high-uncertainty contexts have implications for marketing strategies and public policy interventions.