Impacts of Autonomous Vehicles on Urban Spatial Structure in the Seoul Metropolitan Area-Focusing on Housing Price Distribution According to Changes in Travel Opportunity Cost

Abstract

The changes in travel opportunity cost due to the spread of autonomous vehicles are expected to reduce the burden of long-distance travel and affect preferred residential areas of urban households. This study aims to predict the impact of the spread of autonomous vehicles on urban spatial structure, focusing on the distribution of housing prices in the Seoul Metropolitan Area as it relates to the changes in travel opportunity cost. The current housing price and travel opportunity cost were analyzed through a hedonic price model, and the future housing prices of different scenarios considering the changes in travel opportunity cost were predicted and compared. Compared to the present, the relative housing price distribution or relative price index (RPI) decreased in the range below 20% and increased in the range between 20% and 80%. As the market penetration rate of autonomous vehicles increased, the distribution of the median range of housing prices shifted from downtown Seoul to the adjacent Gyeonggi region. The results of this study suggest that the reduction in travel opportunity cost due to the spread of autonomous vehicles may allow urban households to prefer areas other than the city center as residential areas and mitigate the housing price gap in the Seoul Metropolitan Area. © 2023 Architectural Institute of Korea.