Assessing the transmission potential of mpox in East Asia during 2022-2023: A focus on Taiwan, China, Japan, and South Korea

Abstract

Objectives: This study aims to estimate the transmission potential of mpox in East Asia, focusing on the hardest hit nations: Taiwan, China, Japan, and South Korea.Methods: We utilized six phenomenological dynamic growth models to fit the case incidence during the initial 30 epidemic days. The best-fit model was selected to calculate the reproduction number (Rt). Ad-ditionally, we used the latest case data and a Bayesian framework to compute the instantaneous effective Rt by applying the Cori et al. method.Results: During the early phase, China demonstrated the highest estimated Rt of 2.89 (95% CI: 1.44-3.33); followed by South Korea, 2.18 (95% CI: 0.96-3.57); Japan, 1.73 (95% CI: 0.66-3.94); and Taiwan, 1.36 (95% CI: 0.71-3.30). However, by June 30, 2023, estimated Rt dropped below 1.00 in all countries: China at 0.05 (95% credible interval [CrI]: 0.02-0.10), Japan at 0.32 (95% CrI: 0.15-0.59), South Korea at 0.23 (95% CrI: 0.11-0.42), and Taiwan at 0.41 (95% CrI: 0.31-0.53), indicating the potential decline of the outbreak.Conclusions: Our analysis shows effective containment by each country. It is crucial to sustain effective management to ensure the ultimate eradication of the outbreak.(c) 2023 Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of International Society for Infectious Diseases.This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license ( http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ )