Development of a metamodel for predicting near- field propagation of hazardous and noxious substances spilled from a ship

Abstract

This study aims to numerically analyze the near-field propagation behavior of hazardous and noxious substances (HNSs) and to develop a new metamodel for HNS propagation. Extensive computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations were conducted using the ANSYS FLUENT (V. 17.2) code for various HNS spill scenarios. We newly introduced several key parameters, including the streamwise propagation velocity, transverse propagation velocity, and averaged HNS mass fraction. From the results, the advection effect is more dominant with an increase in the current velocity and streamwise propagation velocity, and with a decrease in the transverse propagation velocity. Also, the HNS mass fraction decreases as the current velocity increases with the change of concentration and propagation area. Particularly, a new metamodel of HNS propagation based on the current CFD results was validated by the hidden point test, showing very good fit. We believe this model would make useful predictions under various scenarios without CFD simulations. © 2019 by the authors.