A Model for Risk Cost and Bidding Price Prediction based on Risk Information in Plant Construction Projects

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to predict the risk cost and the bidding price of a plant construction project based on the surveyed risk information. This is carried out by analyzing the risk information of completed plant construction projects and by applying it to a new project. Accordingly, a model structure is designed and a prototype program is developed for the analysis. In addition, a case study is conducted using this prototype program to demonstrate the model's conformity and practicability. The methodology, process, and main results of this study are as follows. 1) Based on the risk information collected from the completed construction projects, a model structure is designed and its prototype program is developed to predict the risk cost and the bidding price of a new construction project. The advantage of using this program is that it provides quick and reliable analysis of risk information, which can be used effectively in time-limited circumstances such as the project bidding stage. 2) A case study is conducted to verify the conformity and practicability of the prototype program by analyzing the risk information of two completed plant projects. Moreover, using this risk information, the risk cost and the bidding price of a new plant project is estimated. As a result, the proposed model and the prototype program are examined to give a proper estimation of the bidding price, considering the risk cost in plant construction projects.