코로나 기간중 SCFI 급변의 원인과 전망

Abstract

Purpose – It is very important to forecast and analyze the shipping market in business operation and national policy establishment. However, it has become very difficult to forecast the shipping market cycle after COVID based on the balance of supply and demand as before. It is necessary to analyze this in a new way. Design/Methodology/Approach – In this study, we try to examine the relationship with freight using a new variable in a situation where traditional analysis is impossible. The basic analysis method of this study is panel regression analysis. In the basic formula, the COVID dummy variable was added to the independent variables, and the main variables and interaction terms were created to analyze the effect of economic indicators on shipping costs in the COVID situation. Findings – As a result of analyzing the impact of economic indicators on shipping costs after COVID, it was found that PPI and the Demand Forecasting Index had a negative effect on shipping costs. This is contrary to previous studies which found that shipping costs increase in proportion to economic growth or trade volume. However, economic instability increases the inflation index and the value of goods, and when inflation reaches its peak, the value of goods falls. Research Implications – This study is meaningful in that it analyzes the impact of the current situation on shipping costs, which may be difficult to analyze, and suggests the possibility of predictive research. If we apply this analysis and variables to predictive research, we will be able to derive meaningful results.